The West African Coup Trap : A qualitative case study of military coups d'état in Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Guinea

Abstract: Africa is the continent having the most coups d'état. From 2020 to 2022, there were six coups and three coup attempts on the continent. This study aims to investigate the causes of these coups d'état in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Guinea, four former French colonies in West Africa. A new theoretical framework has been developed to investigate this pattern. Indicators of political instability and economic factors are taken from earlier theories, but additional external impact and climate change factors have been incorporated. The method applied in this study is a comparative case study with few cases, combining theory testing, theory building, and theory consuming. The findings indicate that while GDP per capita has improved, it is still unequally distributed among the populace, with high unemployment among the young often leading to migration in search of opportunities. About a year prior to every coup, there has been an increase in political violence. In all four of the cases under investigation, climate change factors such as climate migration and violence resulting from scarcity are present along with disinformation campaigns by Russia, a strong anti-French sentiment, and public discontent with the way the government operates. Both economic factors and climate change factors are found to be closely connected to governance deficits.