Identification and Analysis of Market Indicators : a predictive tool for anticipating future demand fluctuations on the telecom mobile network equipment market

Abstract: Background: Forecasting is an instrument that the managers rely upon for their anticipations of the future. Subcontractors control their operations according to the forecast volumes provided by the telecom mobile network equipment suppliers. The information in the forecasts is however not sufficient. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to identify and test relevant and available market indicators for prediction of future demand fluctuations on the telecom mobile network equipment market. Realisation: During a number of interviews, factors that are driving the network equipment market were clarified. The aim of this part was to identify possible market indicators. Hypotheses were set up to test the chosen indicators. In the second part, the indicators were tested statistically. Finally, the theoretical and logical support of the results was discussed. Result: To predict future movements in network equipment demand, the market indicators should focus on the telecom mobile operators, and their ability, need, and willingness to make new investments. The market indicators proven to be of most importance after the regression analyses were long-term market interest rates and telecom corporate bond indices.