Modelling the adoption of SPACs with Bass’ diffusion model

Abstract: The recent observed growth in the diffusion of Special Purpose Acquisition Companies phenomena on the U.S stock market may be analyzed from a mathematical standpoint, where different approaches of the Bass Diffusion Model might be utilized. The Bass diffusion model originates from analysis of product diffusion, where only a few applications have been seen by financial scholars. The thesis takes a multi analytical approach to examine the phenomena, where multiple regression analysis and Bayesian statistics are used in the parameter estimation processes. Estimated parameter are applied in three different scenarios of expressing the Bass diffusion model in a discrete time state. By utilizing these different approaches that arise, the study shows that the diffusion of Special Purpose Acquisition Companies Initial Public Offerings in fact can be analyzed from a mathematical standpoint utilizing the Bass diffusion model. Some approaches and scenarios indicate better results in terms of fitting the diffusion, while purposing practical actualities towards the reader and market practitioners. The study further purposes potential modifications that might improve the results of fitting the phenomena