Allies and Atrocities : A quantitative analysis of external support to rebel groups and the effects on violence against civilians

Abstract: The intentional killing of civilians by rebel groups is an often observed phenomenon in civil wars. An aspect of civil war that may influence this phenomenon is support by foreign actors to rebel groups. This thesis aims to answer the research question of how external support to rebel groups affects violence against civilians. The theoretical framework used to answer the research question will be built upon two conflicting logics in the current literature. Based on this framework, I argue that the key to explaining how external support affects violence against civilians, lies in the heterogeneity of support and that the various support types can be indexed into two categories, leading to two hypotheses: 1) external support that allows rebels to focus on governance will result in lower levels of rebel one-sided violence, and 2) external support to rebel groups that creates independency from the civilian population results in higher levels of rebel one-sided violence. To test the hypotheses, this thesis uses a quantitative research method and NBRMs using UCDP datasets. The results show that while some types of support align with the expected outcomes, others yield unexpected results, underscoring the importance of considering the varied effects of external support.