Pathway for Sustainable Aviation : Analysis of Science-Based Targets for Aviation

Abstract: In order for the aviation industry to meet the targets of the Paris agreement and reach net-zero by 2050, significant amounts of greenhouse-gas emissions are to be reduced. However, as the industry is essentially dependent on conventional jet fuel, it becomes necessary for alternative technologies to develop and phase out fossil-based fuels. The thesis aims to provide valuable insights into the challenges and potentials of alternative technologies, which include sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), hydrogen, and electric-powered aviation. Additionally, the thesis investigated the Science-Based Targets initiative, and challenged the interim 1.5oC aviation pathway. The findings emphasize the crucial role of stakeholder cooperation in achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Moreover, the thesis underscores the need for significant investments in alternative technologies, in order to enable growth and make the solutions increasingly attractive compared to conventional jet fuel. Collaboration and innovation are essential for attaining environmental targets while balancing economic growth. The thesis also highlights the urgency of policies and regulations to promote additional SAF production investments in order to vastly increase the supply. Furthermore, while the Science-Based Targets initiative (SBTi) is an effective means of securing airlines' commitment to the Paris Agreement, the thesis concludes that the SBTi 1.5oC interim pathway for airlines is overly optimistic. While the SBTi 1.5oC interim pathway’s SAF estimates for 2050 could be achieved, the thesis suggests around 2 to 4 times lower SAF supply for 2030 compared to the SBTi’s estimates. This further emphasizes the airlines' difficulties in following the 1.5oC pathway and the need for the industry to accelerate its transformation and make space for alternative solutions in order to meet the environmental targets.