Semi-Markov processes for calculating the safety of autonomous vehicles

Abstract: Several manufacturers of road vehicles today are working on developing autonomous vehicles. One subject that is often up for discussion when it comes to integrating autonomous road vehicles into the infrastructure is the safety aspect. There is in the context no common view of how safety should be quantified. As a contribution to this discussion we propose describing each potential hazardous event of a vehicle as a Semi-Markov Process (SMP). A reliability-based method for using the semi-Markov representation to calculate the probability of a hazardous event to occur is presented. The method simplifies the expression for the reliability using the Laplace-Stieltjes transform and calculates the transform of the reliability exactly. Numerical inversion algorithms are then applied to approximate the reliability up to a desired error tolerance. The method is validated using alternative techniques and is thereafter applied to a system for automated steering based on a real example from the industry. A desired evolution of the method is to involve a framework for how to represent each hazardous event as a SMP.