Predicting the Potential Long-term Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic on the Logistics Industry in Sweden: The use of Logistics Performance Indicators in the Decision-Making Process.

Abstract: The logistics industry encountered some setbacks that led to disruptions as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic which is gradually easing out but with some still anticipated to persist into the future. The ripple effect of these disruptions is that the logistics industries are experiencing difficulties in understanding the current trends and the future impact of the pandemic on their business. This dilemma forms the basis for trying to highlight and predict the long-term impacts that the pandemic may have. Our study intends to predict the potential long-term impact the pandemic will have on the logistics sector in Sweden. The prediction is done by ranking the potential impacts identified using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a mathematical analytical tool in Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM). The domestic logistics performance indicators (LPIs) of infrastructure, services, border procedure and time, and supply chain reliability compiled by the World Bank, are used as the criteria factors. Moreover, seven most recognized impacts of the pandemic in the logistics industry, extracted from various literature reviewed, are used as the alternative factors. Weights are calculated for the four LPI criteria factors using a pairwise comparison matrix. These weighted criteria were then used to calculate the priority weight of the given alternatives. The result from the analysis showed that supply chain disruption had the highest ranking in the decision-making process. This means that the impacts of the pandemic are expected to persist for a longer period.