Analysing climate effect of agriculture and forestry in southern Sweden at Högestad & Christinehof Estate

Abstract: The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) estimates global warming caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) to 1.1-6.4 º C in the year 2100. Agriculture is the source of 10-12 % of the global GHG emissions. Forests and other terrestrial ecosystems estimated to provide a sink affected by land use management. In this study, I estimate the sources and sinks in agriculture and forestry by using the methodology in the Swedish National Inventory Report of emissions made under the Kyoto protocol. Companies in these trades have an increasing demand for emission inventories of their businesses. Analysis of the Högestad & Christinehof Estate, situated in Scania in southern Sweden, serves as an example. The estate consists of some 6000 ha of agricultural land and some 7000 ha of forest. Within the business, there are also over 350 cattle and game. Estimates cover emissions from agriculture and removals in land use and forestry. The analysis shows that the most affecting part is the livestock and especially the manure management which stands for 90 % of the 45 000 TonCO2-equivalents of GHG that is emitted annually. When forest harvest is not treated as a sink, data from Swedish forest carbon monitoring indicates a removal in the forest of only about 400 TonCO2-eq/yr despite a substantial growth. Because some of the harvest is sequestered, I suggest a method where all saw log is considered an uptake and everything harvested for paper assumed oxidised within a year. This way of counting gives a removal of some 16 000 TonCO2-eq/yr. Important sources are e.g. the use of synthetic fertilizer and animal manure that emit about 1000 TonCO2-eq/yr, carbon loss from cropland that is almost 2000 TonCO2-eq/yr. The removal in grassland is about 1600 TonCO2-eq/yr. The inventory provides the landowner with a good picture and an opportunity to take action despite estimated uncertainties in the analysis of 25-100%. Changed manure management, possibly through biogas production, could reduce emissions significantly. Late thinning, minimized disturbance and fertilization of the forest could increase the net uptake. The inclusion of harvested wood products, and especially long-term products, in the national inventory could be a way of affecting forest management toward more carbon storage. In the agriculture, about 90 % of the GHG emissions are CH4 and N2O and including them in the emission trading system could have positive effects.