Unearthing the social-ecological cascades of the fall armyworm invasion: A computer-assisted text analysis of digital news articles

Abstract: Understanding the complex nature of social-ecological cascades, or chain reactions of events that lead to widespread change in a system, is crucial for navigating the challenges they present. Emerging pests and pathogens, such as the fall armyworm, provide an opportunity to study these cascades in greater detail. I use topic modeling of digital news articles to investigate the potential social-ecological cascades associated with the ongoing fall armyworm invasion of multiple geographic regions. My findings reveal regional thematic shifts in the popular news media discourse surrounding the fall armyworm invasion. Notably, in the discourse surrounding Oceania, I observed a pronounced focus on invasion preparation, a theme significantly more emphasized compared to regions like Africa and Asia. These regional variations shed light on some of the localized priorities in addressing this invasive species. By highlighting the significance of employing comprehensive case studies of emerging pests and pathogens, this research underscores the need for more in- depth analyses of social-ecological cascades to better manage and mitigate their impacts.