Non-proliferation and safeguards aspects of SMR’s in Sweden : A study on the future electricity demand in Sweden and the implications on nuclear safeguards from the deployment of SMRs in Sweden

Abstract: This project aims to investigate and analyze crucial aspects related to the deployment of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) in Sweden. SMRs have risen as a competitor to large-scale nuclear power plants with cost-competitiveness and cogeneration purposes in focus. Alongside the advantages of SMRs, it is important to address the non-proliferation and safeguards aspects of the deployment of SMRs in Sweden. The first stage of this project aimed to predict the electricity consumption in Sweden in 2045. Based on scenarios made by researchers and authorities, a prediction was made that the electricity consumption in Sweden will be approximately 240 TWh in 2045. Subsequently, a study was conducted to assess the suitability of different SMR concepts for deployment in Sweden. The results were that the GE Hitachi BWRX-300 and the Rolls Royce SMR are the concepts most suitable for electricity generation and the VTT LDR 50-SMR is suitable for district heating in Sweden. Based on the predicted electricity consumption and the predicted need for district heating, the SMRs were deployed in three different scenarios which yield the following results: In scenario i), a total of 15-23 SMRs were deployed to the existing nuclear sites in Sweden. (15 SMRs if BWRX-300 is chosen and 23 SMRs if the Rolls Royce SMR is chosen). In scenario ii), 16-24 SMRs in total were deployed to bidding area 1 (SE1), SE2, and SE4. In scenario iii), a total of 25 new reactors were deployed to eight different sites, close to where the electricity consumption was predicted to be large. The implications on material accounting and safeguards from the deployment in the scenarios were that the transportation and storage of spent nuclear fuel will rise by roughly a factor of two, depending on which scenario is chosen and the choice of SMR. There will be more sites for inspectors to visit. New harbors need to be built and licensed. New transportation infrastructure may need to be developed if scenario three is implemented. Furthermore, a new intermediate storage of spent nuclear fuel may be needed.