The implication of a changing West Antarctic Ice Sheet on future sea levels and policymaking in Sweden

Abstract: This paper examines the future possible consequences of rising sea levels primarily due to melting Antarctic ice sheets. An objective is to research suitable methods for handling rising sea levels in Sweden. To analyze Swedish coastal exposure, predictions of sea level changes, water distribution known as fingerprints, and models for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) are considered. Interviews with municipal representatives in northern and southern Sweden as well as governmental funding and legislative documents provide possible future challenges. GIA models and interviews suggest that northern Sweden will experience decreasing relative sea levels soon. Projections of rising sea levels differ, with a lowest sea level rise in southern Sweden at 20 cm in the year 2100, while the highest projections are above 60 cm rise, requiring implementation of coastal protection against erosion and increased risks of flooding. Future projections of ice melting and sea level rise are highly uncertain because of the dependency of the input parameters. Taking precautions and implementing protection in Sweden require extensive processes where mandatory periods can be an obstacle for long term action and funding.