The Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on the Shares of Automotive Manufacturers in the USA, Asia, and Europe in the Short and Long Run

Abstract: This study aims to broaden the remits of the relatively scant hitherto literature focused on the impact of the changes in macroeconomic indicators on automotive stock returns. Since a considerable fraction of previous empirical research covered multiple industries, historical results may not be directly transferable for the purposes of the analysis of the automotive industry. This article posits that on average in the Panel VAR analysis the Broad Effective Exchange Rate (BEER) and inflation were the most significant factors, which influence the automotive industry. In other words, the positive coefficient of BEER signalled that the more a currency of a country appreciated (on average), the more car stock returns gained, and the negative parameter related to inflation indicated that on a global level automotive stocks suffer in a highly inflationary environment. The study follows up by identifying the most significant in terms of their influence short- and long-run macroeconomic factors on car stock returns on a regional basis. Market benchmark indices, automotive benchmark indices, Brent crude oil, and semiconductor indices exhibited the strongest correlations with automotive stock returns in the regional samples covering the US, Germany, Italy, France, China, Japan, and South Korea.